Opportunity Belongs to Geopolitically Fluent Firms
With the entry of 2026, the consideration of geopolitics as a central business concern has become a consistent reality. Based on early 2026 data, geopolitical risk has become a core driver of corporate strategy, affecting roughly 60% of FTSE 100 returns. JP Morgan's e-Trading Outlook 2026 revealed that emerging and ongoing geopolitical tensions will have the biggest effect on global markets. In the 2026 WEF Global Risks Report, geoeconomic confrontation was selected as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis from 2026-2028.
The era of low-friction globalisation is over, replaced by a "NAVI" world (Nonlinear, Accelerated, Volatile, and Interconnected). As the global environment moves from a unipolar, globalised world to a more fragmented, multipolar one, companies are forced to treat geopolitical risk as an enterprise-wide issue that influences operations, supply chains, and investment decisions. Geopolitics and trade have become inseparable, with sanctions, tariffs, and export controls shaping market access as much as consumer demand.
Instead of trusting globalisation as a network of constant growth, companies—which are wealthier than some states (Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft are the most prominent, with valuations surpassing $3 trillion, making them wealthier than the economic output of countries like France, the UK, and India)—are realising that economic globalisation can be weaponised. Rising economic nationalism and restrictions in certain markets can become the new normal. As firms and states vie for influence, and firms continue to grow in value to surpass states, liaising between the two has become necessary for corporations to ensure their vitality, much like implementing new technology or innovating supply chains as industry-disrupting developments arise.
These trends are already being institutionalised. Starting with the big players, the geopolitical advisory industry is growing. Established global firms such as McKinsey, JPMorgan Chase, Beacon Global Strategies, and Kroll have launched geopolitical divisions over the past 10 months. AI companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI have developed internal geopolitical risk capabilities during this period. The market opportunity for the industry is rising rapidly. It is a wonder these firms did not include such advisory in their operations sooner, since any international relations scholar knows that national assets and supply chains, or simply money, are at the centre of much global turmoil. In today's economically and ideologically globalised world, it seems inconceivable not to centralise these concerns.
Geopolitical enterprise, where companies embed geopolitical awareness and capability into their core strategy, operations, and decision-making, represents the future of global business because the fundamental rules of commerce have changed. Navigating the effects of global politics and foreign policy on business operations, in a period of business acclimated to economic globalisation and late-stage capitalism, means that geopolitics has become and will remain a key operational structure of global corporations.
The influence of geopolitical dynamics on the market is not always negative. It can be reframed as an asset for companies. The ability to anticipate shocks and identify opportunities open doors for companies that adapt and innovate quickly. Firms that anticipate shifts can secure a competitive edge, particularly with supply chain disruptions. To capitalise on these shifts and survive, companies cannot adopt a scarcity mindset. They must have a geopolitical opportunity mindset now.
Companies that succeed will understand that technology is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical power, making fluency in both business and geopolitics critical for future competitiveness.
This fluency must translate into action. Companies that leverage adaptive strategies to turn geopolitical insights into operational decisions will experience comparative growth, whilst those that don't will struggle. The ability to enter and exit markets with minimal damage has become as essential as any traditional competitive advantage.
References
FTSE 100 Returns & Geopolitical Risk: "Insight Forward Analysis: EY finds about 60% of FTSE 100 returns now hinge on geopolitical and macro forces." EY Geostrategic Business Group, 2026.
JP Morgan e-Trading Outlook 2026: "2026 e-Trading Outlook." JP Morgan Markets, 2026. https://markets.jpmorgan.com/discover-more/e-trading-survey-report.
WEF Global Risks Report 2026: "The Global Risks Report 2026." World Economic Forum, January 14, 2026. https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/.
EY NAVI Framework: "How to set your global strategy amid asymmetric globalization." EY Global, November 19, 2025. https://www.ey.com/en_gl/insights/geostrategy/future-of-globalization.
Geopolitics & Trade Inseparability: "Top 10 geopolitical developments in 2026." EY Global, December 10, 2025. https://www.ey.com/en_gl/insights/geostrategy/geostrategic-outlook.
Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft Valuations: "Nvidia Surpasses Japan: $4.4T Market Cap Dwarfs Most National GDPs." Disruption Banking, February 4, 2026. https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2026/02/04/nvidia-surpasses-japan-4-4t-market-cap-dwarfs-most-national-gdps/; "Nvidia becomes the first company worth $5 trillion, powered by the AI frenzy." NBC News, October 29, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/nvidia-record-five-trillion-ai-bubble-rcna240447.
Geopolitical Advisory Firm Expansions: "Beacon Global Strategies Announces New Export Control and Industrial Strategy Practice." Beacon Global Strategies, January 13, 2026; "Kroll Announces Creation of Kroll Economics and Kroll Decision Intelligence." Kroll, January 29, 2026; "JPMorganChase Launches Center for Geopolitics." JPMorgan Chase, May 21, 2025; "McKinsey Geopolitics Advisory Council Expansion." McKinsey & Company, December 2025.
Supply Chain Disruptions & Competitive Edge: "Geopolitical radar: Critical global businesses develop." World Economic Forum, January 2025. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/geopolitical-radar-critical-global-businesses-develop/.